Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNLNo Limits Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Block Roar Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Limits Gaming
Monkey Kingoften banned
Zxca · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
JP · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Doomoften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Grimstroke
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Rubick
Alone · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alone · 1 game
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NaoG · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
795 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 431 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 733 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 820 bans
Snapfire
408 picks · 291 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
No Limits Gaming 58%Block Roar Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 31:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJP
AlchemistNaoG
KunkkaAlone
Snapfiredrakesh1t
TuskZxca
DawnbreakerCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction missed46:16
No Limits Gaming 50%Block Roar Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomJP
Monkey KingNaoG
Keeper of the LightAlone
Tuskdrakesh1t
HoodwinkZxca
SilencerCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 59%
Series resultNo Limits Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2