Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNLNo Limits Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TSTeam salchipapaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Limits Gaming
Tusk
Zxca · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 7 games
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Zxca · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 4 games
Team salchipapa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 612 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 478 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1023 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 976 bans
Doom
399 picks · 658 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
392 picks · 605 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:31
No Limits Gaming 61%Team salchipapa 39%
The model gave 61% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 49:00.
Game 2prediction missed37:31
No Limits Gaming 61%Team salchipapa 39%
The model gave 61% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Team salchipapa in 46:23.
Game 3prediction correct46:16
No Limits Gaming 61%Team salchipapa 39%
The model gave 61% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 42:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 61%
Series resultNo Limits Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3