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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO1
result vs prediction
No Monkey Businessloss 0:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Rune Eaterswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Monkey Business

Razor
Razoroften banned
xannii · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
illusion · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MieRo · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 5 games
40%

Rune Eaters

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
hAze · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 267 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 550 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
324 picks · 632 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 372 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
300 picks · 377 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
283 picks · 415 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 438 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 328 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
No Monkey Business 47%Rune Eaters 53%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyxannii
51% · 260 games52% · 75 games
BloodseekerTA2000
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
45% · 299 games48% · 169 games
KunkkahAze
Kunkka
Io
Ioillusion
53% · 268 games50% · 321 game
MarsCloud
Mars
52% · 262 games
BaneArrOw
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 55%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1