DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
No Packet Losswin 1:0series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Secretloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Packet Loss
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 8 games
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
389 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 551 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 722 bans
Lion
312 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% No Packet Loss
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:30
No Packet Loss 21%Team Secret 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Secret — the game was taken by No Packet Loss in 41:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 79%
Series resultNo Packet Loss 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1