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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 9 games
22%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 6 games
17%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
17%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Ainkrad · 18 games
61%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
468 picks · 276 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 542 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
347 picks · 457 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
338 picks · 494 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 531 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 517 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 371 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
260 picks · 287 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 53%
Hero pool strength61% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:28
No Sorry 38%Nemiga Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by No Sorry in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinylayme
48% · 269 games51% · 192 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
55% · 213 games51% · 134 games
Kunkkaxn丶e
Kunkka
Axe
AxeLastHero-
44% · 174 games46% · 381 game
MarsTheChosenOne
Mars
Mirana
Miranay0nd
58% · 235 games45% · 232 games
HoodwinkHeaven
Hoodwink
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBLACKARXANGEL
52% · 158 games49% · 110 games
OracleVANSKOR
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed45:37
No Sorry 38%Nemiga Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by No Sorry in 53:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
52% · 187 games47% · 221 game
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlayme
55% · 264 games44% · 188 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeLastHero-
52% · 125 games51% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightHeaven
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorBLACKARXANGEL
41% · 161 game52% · 195 games
Nyx AssassinVANSKOR
Nyx Assassin
Mirana
Miranay0nd
56% · 221 game53% · 268 games
TinyTheChosenOne
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2