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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Novawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 10 games
30%
Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 9 games
22%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 6 games
17%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
17%

Nova

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
so bad · 4 games
25%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
so bad · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
paradise' · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
464 picks · 275 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 534 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
341 picks · 446 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
326 picks · 490 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 538 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
280 picks · 506 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
271 picks · 291 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
267 picks · 372 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Nova
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
No Sorry 57%Nova 43%
The model gave 57% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Nova in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWorick
58% · 276 games52% · 187 games
Medusaparadise'
Medusa
Ursa
Ursalayme
51% · 133 games46% · 261 game
Puckforyou
Puck
Mars
MarsLastHero-
48% · 425 games51% · 213 games
Death ProphetBb3px
Death Prophet
Jakiro
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
36% · 78 games54% · 149 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magey0nd
50% · 74 games52% · 176 games
Abaddonso bad
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed23:44
No Sorry 55%Nova 45%
The model gave 55% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Nova in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magelayme
49% · 77 games51% · 168 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
46% · 248 games53% · 129 games
Wraith Kingparadise'
Wraith King
Underlord
UnderlordLastHero-
45% · 57 games44% · 41 game
Chaos KnightBb3px
Chaos Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinky0nd
50% · 149 games57% · 132 games
Abaddonso bad
Abaddon
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
54% · 67 games48% · 128 games
Ioswedenstrong
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 64%
Series resultNova 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2