Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Novaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Tinyoften banned
layme · 22 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 21 game
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 15 games
Nova
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Puckoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 629 bans
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
Sand King
398 picks · 528 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 547 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 32%
Hero pool strength54% No Sorry
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 70%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:0
Series predictioncorrect