Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
sQreen's Squadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 42 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 35 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 28 games
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
sQreen's Squad
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 2 games
Clockwerk
sQreen · 2 games
Ogre Magi
sQreen · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
sQreen · 2 games
Snapfire
Copy · 2 games
Tusk
sQreen · 2 games
Axe
Wuiter · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 436 bans
Mars
486 picks · 690 bans
Bane
454 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
Sand King
377 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:42
No Sorry 68%sQreen's Squad 32%
The model gave 68% on No Sorry — the game was taken by sQreen's Squad in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarLastHero-
VisageActor
PudgeKami
Tinytoshiyb
PuckWorick
LichsQreen
Clockwerksunset
IoBLACKARXANGEL
Game 2prediction missed6:37
No Sorry 69%sQreen's Squad 31%
The model gave 69% on No Sorry — the game was taken by sQreen's Squad in 24:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarLastHero-
Pangoliertoshiyb
ZeusWorick
MarsActor
Faceless VoidKami
MarcisQreen
IoBLACKARXANGEL
Clockwerksunset
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 79%
Series resultsQreen's Squad 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2