No Sorry vs Triseum — prediction DPC2S3ВЕЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

No Sorryloss 0:2

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Triseumwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Ursaoften banned

Dinozavrik · 17 games

47%

Clockwerk

BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games

57%

Crystal Maiden

BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games

36%

Death Prophetoften banned

Dodren · 14 games

36%

Centaur Warrunnersignature

Blizzy · 12 games

67%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Dodren · 10 games

40%

Rubick

ArrOw · 10 games

30%

Techies

y0nd · 10 games

50%

Triseum

Muertaoften banned

Ark · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

744 picks · 605 bans

47%

Disruptor

549 picks · 476 bans

55%

Beastmaster

422 picks · 1019 bans

58%

Tiny

401 picks · 375 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

398 picks · 972 bans

51%

Doom

395 picks · 647 bans

54%

Undying

390 picks · 606 bans

50%

Mirana

379 picks · 205 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%

Hero pool strength51% No Sorry

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% No Sorry

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed7:29

No Sorry 52%Triseum 48%

The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Triseum in 26:02.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo