PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNVNo Visionwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Ilbirs eSports
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
egx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
550 picks · 826 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 749 bans
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 581 bans
Mars
344 picks · 475 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% No Vision
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:26
No Vision 82%Ilbirs eSports 18%
The model gave 82% on No Vision — the game was taken by No Vision in 32:20.
Game 2prediction correct35:36
No Vision 82%Ilbirs eSports 18%
The model gave 82% on No Vision — the game was taken by No Vision in 50:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Vision · 82%
Series resultNo Vision 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2