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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NoLogoJustMMRloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monkey Businesswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoLogoJustMMR

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
legacy · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Flash · 1 game
0%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
piro · 1 game
0%

Monkey Business

Omniknight
Omniknight
Shad · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
n0tail · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Topson · 1 game
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Pablo · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 808 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
502 picks · 357 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
466 picks · 643 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 569 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 723 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 570 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 469 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 523 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Monkey Business
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
NoLogoJustMMR 33%Monkey Business 67%
The model gave 67% on Monkey Business — the game was taken by Monkey Business in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperG.T.I
35% · 56 games60% · 102 games
Naga SirenShad
Naga Siren
Luna
Lunalegacy
50% · 19 games53% · 280 games
Dragon KnightTopson
Dragon Knight
Tusk
TuskStoic
43% · 360 games58% · 40 games
MiranaPablo
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJeezy
45% · 169 games59% · 123 games
ChenCeb
Chen
58% · 59 games
Brewmastern0tail
Brewmaster
Game 2prediction missed35:31
NoLogoJustMMR 36%Monkey Business 64%
The model gave 64% on Monkey Business — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautlegacy
41% · 83 games53% · 42 games
ViperShad
Viper
Rubick
RubickG.T.I
59% · 53 games61% · 25 games
RikiTopson
Riki
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
48% · 329 games48% · 130 games
WindrangerPablo
Windranger
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorStoic
64% · 33 games43% · 115 games
Marsn0tail
Mars
46% · 186 games
TuskCeb
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct25:34
NoLogoJustMMR 35%Monkey Business 65%
The model gave 65% on Monkey Business — the game was taken by Monkey Business in 47:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlegacy
56% · 114 games54% · 69 games
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Rubick
RubickG.T.I
52% · 52 games46% · 52 games
Enigman0tail
Enigma
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiStoic
53% · 50 games51% · 18 games
Earth SpiritTopson
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJeezy
49% · 208 games43% · 96 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
48% · 189 games
TuskPablo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMonkey Business · 77%
Series resultMonkey Business 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3