Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CECoritiba E-Sportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Grimstrokesignature
Accel · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 14 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 12 games
Snapfire
Accel · 11 games
Iosignature
Duster · 10 games
Miranasignature
Michael · 10 games
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 437 bans
Mars
478 picks · 694 bans
Bane
444 picks · 294 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 609 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 605 bans
Sand King
359 picks · 522 bans
Grimstroke
343 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:9
NoPing VPN 62%Coritiba E-Sports 38%
The model gave 62% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 34:28.
Game 2prediction missed13:36
NoPing VPN 62%Coritiba E-Sports 38%
The model gave 62% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 42:11.
Game 3prediction missed15:31
NoPing VPN 62%Coritiba E-Sports 38%
The model gave 62% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 50:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 62%
Series resultCoritiba E-Sports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3