NoPing VPN vs Interitus — prediction I1РО · Dota 2

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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

NoPing VPNwin 2:0

series probability

77%23%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Interitusloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Gyrocoptersignature

Accel · 23 games

74%

Timbersawoften banned

Oscar · 22 games

59%

Earth Spiritsignature

Michael · 18 games

61%

Tiny

DarkMago · 16 games

38%

Marssignature

Oscar · 15 games

73%

Tidehunteroften banned

Mariano · 15 games

47%

Nyx Assassinsignature

Matthew · 14 games

71%

Medusasignature

hFn · 11 games

73%

Interitus

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

444 picks · 193 bans

49%

Mars

390 picks · 577 bans

51%

Puck

388 picks · 881 bans

51%

Snapfire

371 picks · 206 bans

50%

Grimstroke

345 picks · 323 bans

48%

Tiny

321 picks · 233 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

289 picks · 394 bans

53%

Ancient Apparition

286 picks · 394 bans

58%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% NoPing VPN

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total77% NoPing VPN

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct33:9

NoPing VPN 63%Interitus 37%

The model gave 63% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 31:14.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo