Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 9 games
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 8 games
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 7 games
Silenceroften banned
Accel · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Undyingoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Clockwerk
Zxca · 5 games
Snapfire
Oscar · 5 games
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
Undyingsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 10 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 574 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1285 bans
Doom
554 picks · 1096 bans
Techies
501 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
475 picks · 952 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1111 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:39
NoPing VPN 40%Lava 60%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladehFn
Bloodseekerpayk
Timbersawdrakeel
LycanHermit
MiranaZxca
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
UndyingYor
Game 2prediction correct21:40
NoPing VPN 43%Lava 57%
The model gave 57% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunahFn
Alchemistpayk
Underlorddrakeel
DoomHermit
Keeper of the LightZxca
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
DisruptorYor
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 64%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2