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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
los moticucoswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Mirana
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Accel · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Oscar · 5 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%

los moticucos

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 3 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Alone · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Alone · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Accel · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
730 picks · 624 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
518 picks · 1005 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1279 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
451 picks · 1143 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 919 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
421 picks · 608 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:23
NoPing VPN 46%los moticucos 54%
The model gave 54% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkhFn
52% · 162 games40% · 145 games
MagnusAlone
Magnus
Beastmaster
Beastmasterdrakeel
59% · 309 games47% · 189 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderZxca
56% · 206 games43% · 485 games
Rubicksl4d1n-
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerYor
55% · 249 games48% · 107 games
PugnaAccel
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed34:43
NoPing VPN 44%los moticucos 56%
The model gave 56% on los moticucos — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seerdrakeel
58% · 72 games49% · 53 games
PugnaAlone
Pugna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinhFn
51% · 118 games44% · 156 games
DawnbreakerOscar
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderYor
49% · 200 games53% · 63 games
MedusaAccel
Medusa
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZxca
53% · 271 game46% · 389 games
Rubicksl4d1n-
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct15:31
NoPing VPN 45%los moticucos 55%
The model gave 55% on los moticucos — the game was taken by los moticucos in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlinghFn
48% · 118 games50% · 36 games
Phantom LancerAlone
Phantom Lancer
Timbersaw
Timbersawdrakeel
47% · 125 games56% · 243 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZxca
49% · 35 games51% · 108 games
Skywrath Magesl4d1n-
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressYor
47% · 185 games52% · 76 games
Spirit BreakerAccel
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 60%
Series resultlos moticucos 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3