Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NnoMERCYwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 7 games
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Silenceroften banned
Accel · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 4 games
noMERCY
Treant Protectoroften banned
555k · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Zxca · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 6 games
Visagesignature
drakeel · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
555k · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 616 bans
Disruptor
596 picks · 523 bans
Doom
503 picks · 965 bans
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1244 bans
Ember Spirit
443 picks · 1107 bans
Pangolier
436 picks · 890 bans
Mirana
417 picks · 221 bans
Enchantress
414 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
NoPing VPN 60%noMERCY 40%
The model gave 60% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by noMERCY in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlinghFn
MedusaMnz
Magnusdrakeel
Earth SpiritMr.Jeans
TechiesZxca
Spirit BreakerElmisho
Elder TitanYor
VisageBenjaz
46% · 132 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 2prediction missed15:40
NoPing VPN 62%noMERCY 38%
The model gave 62% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by noMERCY in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnushFn
TerrorbladeMnz
Snapfiredrakeel
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
Dark WillowYor
Spirit BreakerElmisho
ClockwerkZxca
TidehunterBenjaz
47% · 446 games
RubickYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 67%
Series resultnoMERCY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2