Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Snapfire
Michael · 14 games
Banesignature
Accel · 13 games
Miranasignature
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 10 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 9 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 9 games
Ravens
Disruptor
Cara · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Benjaz · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Hoodwink
d1smar · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Mirana
d1smar · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Cara · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
441 picks · 273 bans
Queen of Pain
395 picks · 499 bans
Weaver
355 picks · 506 bans
Mars
343 picks · 490 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 473 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 332 bans
Spirit Breaker
247 picks · 466 bans
Death Prophet
242 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:28
NoPing VPN 50%Ravens 50%
The model gave 50% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMandy
Faceless VoidDaaD-
Storm SpiritSooths
KunkkaÑengoflow KELOKE
LinaRdO
Night StalkerBenjaz
IoDuster
Miranad1smar
54% · 265 games
BaneCara
Game 2prediction correct39:26
NoPing VPN 50%Ravens 50%
The model gave 50% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 51:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMandy
Chaos KnightDaaD-
KunkkaSooths
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
LinaRdO
NecrophosBenjaz
JakiroDuster
Nyx Assassind1smar
43% · 129 games
IoCara
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 51%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2