Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ravenswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Grimstrokesignature
Accel · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 15 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 15 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 14 games
Snapfire
Accel · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 14 games
Mirana
Michael · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 12 games
Ravens
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Bane
Cara · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Mirana
d1smar · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
542 picks · 458 bans
Mars
436 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 541 bans
Bane
394 picks · 278 bans
Puck
352 picks · 812 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 574 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 632 bans
Chaos Knight
331 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Ravens
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
NoPing VPN 47%Ravens 53%
The model gave 53% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMandy
Chaos KnightDaaD-
Vengeful SpiritLeostyle
Dragon KnightBenjaz
TinyMoOz
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
AbaddonCys
Enigmad1smar
46% · 88 games
ViperCara
Game 2prediction correct32:42
NoPing VPN 49%Ravens 51%
The model gave 51% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 49:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMandy
RazorDaaD-
LinaLeostyle
PuckÑengoflow KELOKE
Dragon KnightCys
EnigmaBenjaz
ZeusMoOz
AbaddonCara
48% · 201 game
Tinyd1smar
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 52%
Series resultRavens 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2