Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction(T(Not) The Cutwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blue pikachuloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
(Not) The Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Blue pikachu
Phoenixoften banned
Alren · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Alren · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 326 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 510 bans
Mars
310 picks · 442 bans
Techies
296 picks · 223 bans
Hoodwink
286 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% (Not) The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Blue pikachu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:24
(Not) The Cut 46%Blue pikachu 54%
The model gave 54% on Blue pikachu — the game was taken by Blue pikachu in 27:16.
Game 2prediction missed49:29
(Not) The Cut 46%Blue pikachu 54%
The model gave 54% on Blue pikachu — the game was taken by (Not) The Cut in 39:18.
Game 3prediction missed40:15
(Not) The Cut 46%Blue pikachu 54%
The model gave 54% on Blue pikachu — the game was taken by (Not) The Cut in 36:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlue pikachu · 54%
Series result(Not) The Cut 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3