DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNotwin 1:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DDarkStormloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Not
No games played over 6 months.
DarkStorm
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
645 picks · 692 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 456 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 422 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 426 bans
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1111 bans
Puck
396 picks · 866 bans
Hoodwink
387 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Not
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Not
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Not 72%DarkStorm 28%
The model gave 72% on Not — the game was taken by Not.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot · 72%
Series resultNot 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1