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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechieswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Trident Clanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoTechies

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 7 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 4 games
75%

Trident Clan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
antoha · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
SoulEater · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 967 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
396 picks · 555 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
357 picks · 710 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 575 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
315 picks · 297 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 289 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
265 picks · 142 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% NoTechies
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Trident Clan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:11
NoTechies 45%Trident Clan 55%
The model gave 55% on Trident Clan — the game was taken by NoTechies in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelayme
58% · 25 games48% · 41 game
Phantom LancerMunkushi~
Phantom Lancer
Mars
MarsDkFogas
53% · 72 games50% · 38 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Puck
PuckEgor
47% · 115 games52% · 97 games
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
Phoenixxsvampire
50% · 62 games45% · 114 games
MiranaSoulEater
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSolo
50% · 39 games54% · 23 games
Chenantoha
Chen
Game 2prediction correct19:40
NoTechies 46%Trident Clan 54%
The model gave 54% on Trident Clan — the game was taken by Trident Clan in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEgor
42% · 11 games43% · 6 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlayme
50% · 6 games48% · 34 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDkFogas
48% · 14 games42% · 11 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
58% · 73 games50% · 94 games
RubickSoulEater
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSolo
47% · 63 games57% · 22 games
Ancient Apparitionantoha
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed38:40
NoTechies 47%Trident Clan 53%
The model gave 53% on Trident Clan — the game was taken by NoTechies in 1:03:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglayme
53% · 61 game50% · 70 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEgor
44% · 15 games50% · 51 game
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawDkFogas
44% · 44 games55% · 12 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
52% · 48 games45% · 92 games
RubickSoulEater
Rubick
Lion
Lionxsvampire
57% · 63 games64% · 6 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTrident Clan · 55%
Series resultNoTechies 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3