ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
X3win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
Lion
xsvampire · 7 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
Solo · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
DkFogas · 6 games
Axeoften banned
DkFogas · 5 games
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Solo · 5 games
X3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 981 bans
Lion
372 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 650 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 224 bans
Void Spirit
289 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series resultX3 0:1
Series predictioncorrect