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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
NoUndyingloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoUndying

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
velheor · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 3 games
0%

Spider Pigzs

Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 12 games
42%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No!ob · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
255 picks · 530 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
234 picks · 289 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
212 picks · 383 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
171 picks · 304 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
168 picks · 196 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 534 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
161 picks · 212 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:26
NoUndying 49%Spider Pigzs 51%
The model gave 51% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYellow Flash
52% · 106 games58% · 51 game
Wraith Kinglil pleb
Wraith King
Sand King
Sand KingpJonn
49% · 13 games43% · 38 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Earthshaker
Earthshakervelheor
55% · 38 games39% · 19 games
UnderlordMitch
Underlord
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorBLACKARXANGEL
48% · 41 game51% · 42 games
Shadow Shamandnz
Shadow Shaman
47% · 48 games
Death ProphetLeBronDota
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct10:23
NoUndying 46%Spider Pigzs 54%
The model gave 54% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 22:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYellow Flash
53% · 23 games55% · 24 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetvelheor
50% · 32 games56% · 40 games
Monkey Kinglil pleb
Monkey King
Mars
MarspJonn
46% · 64 games47% · 20 games
Sand KingMitch
Sand King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBLACKARXANGEL
50% · 34 games42% · 43 games
Shadow Shamandnz
Shadow Shaman
57% · 26 games
PangolierLeBronDota
Pangolier
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 53%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2