Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSymBiosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
No games played over 6 months.
SymBios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
58 picks · 121 bans
Puck
50 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
47 picks · 38 bans
Void Spirit
43 picks · 74 bans
Phoenix
38 picks · 44 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 74 bans
Undying
34 picks · 59 bans
Shadow Shaman
33 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% NoUndying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% NoUndying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:7
NoUndying 49%SymBios 51%
The model gave 51% on SymBios — the game was taken by NoUndying in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKodos
Ursapio65
Tinyvelheor
ClockwerkjAMES
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
Phoenixyol
Game 2prediction correct31:14
NoUndying 52%SymBios 48%
The model gave 52% on NoUndying — the game was taken by NoUndying in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderKodos
Ember Spiritpio65
Phoenixvelheor
MiranajAMES
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Keeper of the Lightyol
Model check result
Model favoriteNoUndying · 51%
Series resultNoUndying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2