Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
Earth Spirit
velheor · 3 games
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 1 game
Oracle
BLACKARXANGEL · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
velheor · 1 game
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 2 games
Tusk
sayuw · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Petushara · 1 game
Chen
EcNart · 1 game
Clockwerk
sayuw · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
85 picks · 197 bans
Mars
83 picks · 173 bans
Earth Spirit
74 picks · 60 bans
Void Spirit
66 picks · 120 bans
Rubick
55 picks · 30 bans
Undying
55 picks · 77 bans
Phoenix
54 picks · 68 bans
Monkey King
51 picks · 127 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:24
NoUndying 47%Team Empire 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by NoUndying in 52:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaKodos
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
BatriderLastHero-
Nature's ProphetPetushara
Earth Spiritvelheor
PhoenixEcNart
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Nyx Assassinsayuw
Game 2prediction correct24:4
NoUndying 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on NoUndying — the game was taken by NoUndying in 22:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderLastHero-
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritKodos
Outworld DestroyerPetushara
Nyx Assassinvelheor
Phoenixsayuw
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
OracleEcNart
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 50%
Series resultNoUndying 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2