Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WWhyTrywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
Earth Spirit
velheor · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 4 games
WhyTry
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 833 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 504 bans
Mars
309 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 468 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 511 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% WhyTry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% NoUndying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:17
NoUndying 59%WhyTry 41%
The model gave 59% on NoUndying — the game was taken by WhyTry in 27:02.
Game 2prediction missed13:25
NoUndying 59%WhyTry 41%
The model gave 59% on NoUndying — the game was taken by WhyTry in 29:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoUndying · 59%
Series resultWhyTry 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2