Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XXactJlepbIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
Earth Spirit
velheor · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 3 games
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
velheor · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
velheor · 3 games
XactJlepbI
Miranasignature
KingR · 10 games
Rubick
KingR · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Funn1k · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 6 games
Troll Warlordsignature
lightless · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
KingR · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
201 picks · 440 bans
Mars
180 picks · 335 bans
Void Spirit
173 picks · 245 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 138 bans
Phoenix
145 picks · 166 bans
Keeper of the Light
137 picks · 230 bans
Nyx Assassin
128 picks · 441 bans
Rubick
123 picks · 74 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% NoUndying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:10
NoUndying 52%XactJlepbI 48%
The model gave 52% on NoUndying — the game was taken by NoUndying in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaKodos
Wraith KingWatson
SlardarLastHero-
BristlebackMagicaL
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
TimbersawFunn1k
Shadow Shamanvelheor
EarthshakerKingR
42% · 16 games
Crystal Maidennofear
Game 2prediction missed38:15
NoUndying 49%XactJlepbI 51%
The model gave 51% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by NoUndying in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritKodos
Monkey KingWatson
MarsLastHero-
PuckMagicaL
Earthshakervelheor
PangolierFunn1k
Witch DoctorBLACKARXANGEL
RubickKingR
50% · 21 game
Brewmasternofear
Model check result
Model favoriteNoUndying · 51%
Series resultNoUndying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2