ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bammysoyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 16 games
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
Windranger
Gunnar · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 10 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
K1 · 8 games
Bammysoy
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 6 games
Tusk
Husky · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
Sammyboy · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Moo · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Husky · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Arms · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
243 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
234 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 275 bans
Treant Protector
208 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 423 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 281 bans
Earthshaker
181 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
nouns 60%Bammysoy 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYuma
Wraith KingSammyboy
Spirit BreakerGunnar
BrewmasterMoo
InvokerStormstormer
TuskMo13ei
PugnaLelis
Shadow DemonBliNcc
Treant ProtectorFly
GrimstrokeHusky
Game 2prediction missed11:40
nouns 62%Bammysoy 38%
The model gave 62% on nouns — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuma
LunaSammyboy
Spirit BreakerGunnar
Primal BeastMoo
Earth SpiritStormstormer
ZeusMo13ei
PugnaLelis
Dark WillowBliNcc
UndyingFly
Treant ProtectorHusky
Game 3prediction correct26:26
nouns 63%Bammysoy 37%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 46:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYuma
AlchemistMo13ei
PuckStormstormer
WeaverSammyboy
Spirit BreakerGunnar
TidehunterMoo
ChenFly
Dark WillowBliNcc
GrimstrokeLelis
TuskHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 73%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3