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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 21 game
52%
Sven
Sven
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 19 games
47%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 30 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
28%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 16 games
44%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
87%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 302 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 419 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 898 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 809 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
347 picks · 702 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 478 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 381 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
nouns 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
53% · 296 games53% · 297 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
49% · 129 games44% · 197 games
TimbersawSacred
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
56% · 347 games50% · 95 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfireFly
50% · 255 games51% · 329 games
PhoenixYadomi
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
49% · 314 games47% · 423 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed5:20
nouns 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
50% · 126 games44% · 182 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
48% · 337 games52% · 397 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
51% · 330 games51% · 251 game
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLelis
48% · 290 games50% · 331 game
BatriderMatthew
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
55% · 363 games52% · 285 games
SvenYadomi
Sven
Game 3prediction missed15:26
nouns 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
50% · 260 games49% · 429 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyCopy
56% · 369 games50% · 367 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
48% · 328 games55% · 310 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
51% · 309 games46% · 176 games
JakiroMatthew
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
47% · 343 games49% · 327 games
SnapfireYadomi
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 54%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3