PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CEContinuum Esports Goldloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 14 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Continuum Esports Gold
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
424 picks · 692 bans
Mars
403 picks · 650 bans
Techies
400 picks · 324 bans
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 475 bans
Batrider
382 picks · 847 bans
Vengeful Spirit
359 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
353 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
nouns 91%Continuum Esports Gold 9%
The model gave 91% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Game 2prediction correct
nouns 91%Continuum Esports Gold 9%
The model gave 91% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 91%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2