nouns vs Fart Studios — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

nounswin 2:0

series probability

94%6%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Fart Studiosloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden

Fly · 24 games

50%

Miranasignature

Lelis · 20 games

70%

Shadow Demonsignature

Lelis · 20 games

70%

Pangolieroften banned

Gunnar · 19 games

58%

Rubick

Lelis · 19 games

42%

Monkey Kingsignature

Copy · 18 games

67%

Phoenixoften banned

Fly · 18 games

50%

Windrangeroften banned

Lelis · 18 games

50%

Fart Studios

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

349 picks · 258 bans

45%

Rubick

327 picks · 311 bans

50%

Snapfire

325 picks · 273 bans

53%

Pangolier

323 picks · 453 bans

49%

Hoodwink

321 picks · 371 bans

52%

Windranger

298 picks · 410 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

295 picks · 459 bans

47%

Enchantress

288 picks · 497 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%

Hero pool strength54% nouns

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total94% nouns

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct45:17

nouns 80%Fart Studios 20%

The model gave 80% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 34:19.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo