BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lelis · 7 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
Heroic
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
KJ · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
K1 · 1 game
Clockwerk
Scofield · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
4nalog · 1 game
Lion
Scofield · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 292 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
nouns 57%Heroic 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
BloodseekerK1
PangolierStormstormer
Ember Spirit4nalog
MagnusGunnar
Dark SeerDavai
GyrocopterLelis
ChenKJ
Winter WyvernFly
RubickScofield
Game 2prediction correct32:22
nouns 55%Heroic 45%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierStormstormer
Faceless VoidK1
SlarkYuma
Primal Beast4nalog
Winter WyvernGunnar
BatriderDavai
Vengeful SpiritLelis
Nature's ProphetKJ
LionFly
TinyScofield
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 63%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2