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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 22 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 28 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 20 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 634 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 370 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 431 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
312 picks · 517 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 405 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 112 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 562 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
nouns 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
41% · 84 games50% · 157 games
SvenK1
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
48% · 140 games45% · 23 games
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCopy
67% · 18 games60% · 57 games
Pudge4nalog
Pudge
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLelis
43% · 17 games51% · 123 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickFly
51% · 238 games50% · 137 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct20:23
nouns 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuma
51% · 105 games51% · 159 games
SvenK1
Sven
Sand King
Sand KingCopy
little data46% · 129 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
51% · 214 games44% · 52 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
51% · 180 games50% · 84 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
58% · 86 games45% · 161 game
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 58%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2