Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 3:1
LLegacyloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 14 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 11 games
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 525 bans
Mars
317 picks · 471 bans
Techies
307 picks · 237 bans
Batrider
296 picks · 559 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 175 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:32
nouns 71%Legacy 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by Legacy in 40:00.
Game 2prediction correct12:42
nouns 71%Legacy 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:26.
Game 3prediction correct29:10
nouns 71%Legacy 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 34:07.
Game 4prediction correct8:39
nouns 71%Legacy 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:38.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultnouns 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4