Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 6 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Lucky Bird
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
232 picks · 242 bans
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
Pangolier
203 picks · 539 bans
Rubick
203 picks · 170 bans
Leshrac
197 picks · 414 bans
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:7
nouns 64%Lucky Bird 36%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMoo
Wraith KingRises
Monkey KingYamSun
PangolierBlackSoul
TuskGunnar
ClockwerkYadomi
MiranaHusky
Dark WillowWij
RubickLelis
Game 2prediction correct35:15
nouns 63%Lucky Bird 37%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperYamSun
SlarkRises
ViperGunnar
WindrangerBlackSoul
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
TinyWij
RubickLelis
Treant ProtectorYadomi
UndyingHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 74%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2