?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 18 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Gunnar · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 17 games
65%

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 43 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 34 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 33 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 27 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 294 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 434 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 531 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 289 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
296 picks · 422 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 473 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
293 picks · 796 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
nouns 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
55% · 281 game45% · 85 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackGunnar
46% · 76 games45% · 177 games
DoomForce
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
58% · 200 games46% · 333 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
52% · 274 games48% · 223 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
51% · 224 games51% · 237 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed21:37
nouns 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
51% · 232 games51% · 54 games
SpectreUlnit
Spectre
Sniper
SniperCopy
51% · 100 games48% · 353 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaGunnar
51% · 259 games52% · 252 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
52% · 228 games47% · 244 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
50% · 214 games48% · 130 games
LeshracNARMAN
Leshrac
Game 3prediction correct26:17
nouns 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
57% · 295 games45% · 74 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
57% · 160 games51% · 230 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Visage
VisageGunnar
51% · 61 game48% · 298 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaFly
49% · 113 games45% · 139 games
SnapfireNARMAN
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskLelis
48% · 205 games47% · 93 games
Disruptorbengan
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 75%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3