Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Quincy Crewwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 7 games
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Clockwerk
ZfreeK · 5 games
Snapfire
Husky · 5 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
594 picks · 456 bans
Mars
419 picks · 646 bans
Puck
407 picks · 864 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 513 bans
Bane
371 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
332 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
nouns 47%Quincy Crew 53%
The model gave 53% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 43:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 53%
Series resultQuincy Crew 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1