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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sand King Gomezloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 15 games
33%
Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Moo · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 9 games
78%

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 11 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Jubei · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
602 picks · 632 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
471 picks · 256 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 840 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
382 picks · 387 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 748 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
352 picks · 777 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
345 picks · 847 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
344 picks · 718 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 28%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
nouns 65%Sand King Gomez 35%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
53% · 33 games55% · 62 games
Dark WillowCHAAANNN
Dark Willow
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritGunnar
44% · 144 games52% · 264 games
TuskN1NE
Tusk
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMoo
51% · 61 game
Phoenix
PhoenixLelis
45% · 69 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYamSun
40% · 19 games
Game 2prediction missed21:30
nouns 65%Sand King Gomez 35%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightK1
36% · 10 games45% · 27 games
GrimstrokeCHAAANNN
Grimstroke
Tiny
TinyGunnar
62% · 55 games48% · 176 games
Skywrath MageN1NE
Skywrath Mage
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMoo
62% · 24 games
Rubick
RubickLelis
44% · 106 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYamSun
50% · 8 games
Game 3prediction correct38:11
nouns 71%Sand King Gomez 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenK1
61% · 136 games45% · 344 games
RubickN1NE
Rubick
Leshrac
LeshracGunnar
52% · 210 games52% · 204 games
UndyingCHAAANNN
Undying
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMoo
54% · 27 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLelis
48% · 143 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYamSun
42% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 82%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3