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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lelis · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
86%

Shopify Rebellion

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 7 games
43%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Arteezy · 7 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 6 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Cr1t- · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Abed · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
253 picks · 430 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
221 picks · 353 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
208 picks · 279 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
206 picks · 98 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
206 picks · 192 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
188 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
180 picks · 508 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 27%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:34
nouns 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
50% · 158 games62% · 86 games
JuggernautArteezy
Juggernaut
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYuma
43% · 104 games52% · 171 game
TimbersawYopaj
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusGunnar
51% · 88 games46% · 83 games
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
Legion Commander
Weaver
WeaverLelis
53% · 26 games48% · 88 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
46% · 52 games
Game 2prediction missed27:19
nouns 49%Shopify Rebellion 51%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
50% · 59 games56% · 128 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
56% · 323 games55% · 134 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Magnus
MagnusGunnar
48% · 142 games52% · 107 games
WindrangerArteezy
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
41% · 132 games46% · 460 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
41% · 173 games
Game 3prediction missed28:16
nouns 50%Shopify Rebellion 50%
The model gave 50% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuma
49% · 84 games60% · 173 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Puck
PuckStormstormer
40% · 106 games55% · 89 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
40% · 108 games56% · 75 games
SvenArteezy
Sven
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
52% · 156 games51% · 247 games
TinyThiolicor
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
41% · 130 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3