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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 24 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 20 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 19 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 18 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
50%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hellscream · 12 games
83%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 278 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 451 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 364 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 424 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 512 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 475 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total59% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:19
nouns 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
44% · 128 games52% · 196 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordGunnar
54% · 86 games44% · 38 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Puck
PuckCopy
44% · 251 game51% · 230 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaLelis
46% · 200 games52% · 234 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
50% · 92 games63% · 59 games
OmniknightSkem
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct17:1
nouns 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
48% · 267 games54% · 44 games
BristlebackTimado
Bristleback
Visage
VisageGunnar
48% · 46 games52% · 196 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
40% · 109 games51% · 172 games
Primal Beastmangekyou
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenFly
50% · 116 games59% · 205 games
Shadow DemonSkem
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskLelis
49% · 245 games49% · 166 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct35:23
nouns 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 48:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuma
55% · 137 games45% · 47 games
Lone DruidTimado
Lone Druid
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCopy
43% · 59 games54% · 191 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsGunnar
49% · 180 games55% · 48 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
46% · 143 games51% · 245 games
Shadow DemonSkem
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskFly
51% · 126 games49% · 114 games
MarciHellscream
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 59%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3