DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSoSteamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 11 games
Hoodwink
Lelis · 11 games
SoSteam
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 596 bans
Techies
362 picks · 286 bans
Mars
361 picks · 557 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
Batrider
342 picks · 704 bans
Hoodwink
326 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
322 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
nouns 88%SoSteam 12%
The model gave 88% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 22:41.
Game 2prediction correct25:3
nouns 88%SoSteam 12%
The model gave 88% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 13:42.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 88%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2