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BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Costabile · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
ZfreeK · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Husky · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 1 game
100%

Team DogChamp

Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 280 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
453 picks · 626 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 482 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
390 picks · 513 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 780 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 538 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 512 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 484 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 22%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:13
nouns 61%Team DogChamp 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinCostabile
46% · 119 games48% · 86 games
UrsaStoneBank
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGunnar
47% · 240 games54% · 165 games
Death ProphetFayde
Death Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawMoo
56% · 184 games46% · 307 games
MarsSpeeed
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightZfreeK
46% · 117 games55% · 83 games
Winter Wyvernyarintheslayer
Winter Wyvern
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHusky
64% · 6 games48% · 25 games
Witch DoctorBloody Nine
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct38:9
nouns 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGunnar
57% · 3 games53% · 131 game
MedusaStoneBank
Medusa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCostabile
37% · 45 games49% · 144 games
Storm SpiritFayde
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsMoo
49% · 480 games57% · 101 game
TimbersawSpeeed
Timbersaw
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZfreeK
53% · 143 games46% · 86 games
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHusky
47% · 20 games54% · 229 games
BaneBloody Nine
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2