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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 14 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 9 games
78%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bloody Nine · 14 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
red2 · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
dnm · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
566 picks · 608 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
463 picks · 239 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 794 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 698 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
370 picks · 377 bans
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
343 picks · 833 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
340 picks · 724 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 727 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:19
nouns 56%Team DogChamp 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:15:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautK1
47% · 107 games50% · 245 games
Terrorbladednm
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGunnar
50% · 222 games51% · 118 games
Queen of Painred2
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMoo
53% · 540 games51% · 235 games
Primal BeastSpeeed
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
51% · 615 games51% · 650 games
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixYamSun
46% · 199 games49% · 435 games
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Game 2prediction correct30:39
nouns 57%Team DogChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 59:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
49% · 179 games48% · 210 games
Terrorbladednm
Terrorblade
Necrophos
NecrophosGunnar
58% · 27 games50% · 284 games
Ember Spiritred2
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMoo
56% · 383 games49% · 185 games
TimbersawSpeeed
Timbersaw
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
54% · 286 games43% · 52 games
Earth SpiritMoOz
Earth Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYamSun
53% · 46 games41% · 190 games
SilencerBloody Nine
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 62%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2