ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNNuma Numa leiloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Numa Numa lei
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Clockwerksignature
555k · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Phoenix
Pamplona · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
Sven
DaaD- · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Jakiro
555k · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 567 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
320 picks · 379 bans
Enchantress
302 picks · 571 bans
Dark Willow
284 picks · 153 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 332 bans
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 987 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Numa Numa lei
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Numa Numa lei 29%Lava 71%
The model gave 71% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Game 2prediction missed
Numa Numa lei 29%Lava 71%
The model gave 71% on Lava — the game was taken by Numa Numa lei.
Game 3prediction correct
Numa Numa lei 29%Lava 71%
The model gave 71% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 71%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3