DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Ceb · 19 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
9Pandas
Doomsignature
MieRo · 48 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 41 game
Techies
Antares · 35 games
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 32 games
Rubick
Antares · 32 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
351 picks · 174 bans
Ember Spirit
267 picks · 363 bans
Pangolier
216 picks · 440 bans
Undying
215 picks · 382 bans
Batrider
214 picks · 307 bans
Storm Spirit
213 picks · 345 bans
Dark Seer
211 picks · 405 bans
Beastmaster
206 picks · 451 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:11
OG 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by OG in 47:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Puckkiyotaka
RazorMinD_ContRoL
GyrocopterRAMZES666
Earth Spiritbzm
AxeMieRo
Treant ProtectorCeb
Shadow DemonAntares
53% · 26 games
Elder TitanSolo
Game 2prediction missed35:33
OG 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by OG in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
GyrocopterRAMZES666
Ember Spiritbzm
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
BrewmasterCeb
RubickAntares
42% · 186 games
UndyingSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 65%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2