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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 27 games
52%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
50%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%

Ancient Tribe

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 9 games
56%
Viper
Vipersignature
Mo13ei · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mo13ei · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mo13ei · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
LeBronDota · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
463 picks · 494 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
455 picks · 218 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 657 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 602 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 700 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
327 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
310 picks · 521 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 634 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
OG 65%Ancient Tribe 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
50% · 138 games40% · 48 games
SvenWoE
Sven
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
51% · 104 games46% · 80 games
Death ProphetMo13ei
Death Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordDM
53% · 88 games53% · 40 games
EarthshakerMr. Luck
Earthshaker
Io
IoCeb
55% · 74 games48% · 73 games
PhoenixAlexxo
Phoenix
52% · 163 games
DisruptorLeBronDota
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:11
OG 66%Ancient Tribe 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuragi
35% · 60 games53% · 170 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
51% · 374 games54% · 138 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
45% · 160 games57% · 101 game
Dark SeerMr. Luck
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
52% · 119 games48% · 114 games
MarciLeBronDota
Marci
52% · 190 games
TuskAlexxo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 78%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2