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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 32 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
44%

Apex Genesis

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 759 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 329 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
333 picks · 235 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 367 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 488 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
284 picks · 603 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
OG 67%Apex Genesis 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
42% · 208 games57% · 66 games
Shadow FiendSammyboy
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
45% · 328 games51% · 377 games
RubickW1sh-
Rubick
Mars
MarsWisper
45% · 234 games57% · 200 games
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
49% · 241 game50% · 330 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
53% · 92 games51% · 130 games
Elder TitanYamSun
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct40:15
OG 69%Apex Genesis 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTimado
50% · 74 games48% · 196 games
Dragon KnightSammyboy
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
50% · 133 games46% · 175 games
WindrangerW1sh-
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
56% · 187 games55% · 184 games
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
50% · 245 games49% · 299 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
51% · 299 games47% · 84 games
JakiroYamSun
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 84%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2