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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
27%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shad · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 37 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 32 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
dEsire · 18 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
562 picks · 568 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 416 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 391 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 523 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 198 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 721 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 608 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 441 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total63% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:12
OG 40%AVULUS 60%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by OG in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomShad
47% · 149 games44% · 152 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetStormstormer
39% · 35 games51% · 101 game
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
53% · 96 games57% · 249 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyDaze
44% · 258 games54% · 107 games
ChenFly
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroLelis
43% · 137 games67% · 66 games
BanedEsire
Bane
Game 2prediction missed32:17
OG 43%AVULUS 57%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by OG in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetShad
53% · 186 games55% · 193 games
DoomKami
Doom
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
49% · 333 games48% · 84 games
UnderlordXibbe
Underlord
Axe
AxeMikSa`
40% · 111 games59% · 106 games
ChenFly
Chen
Pugna
PugnaLelis
50% · 130 games52% · 189 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDaze
32% · 12 games47% · 200 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 63%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2