Dota 2 Showmatch · BO1
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
beastcoastwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Saksa · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
Dark Willow
Saksa · 7 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Axesignature
Ceb · 6 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ceb · 6 games
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
356 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
309 picks · 114 bans
Lina
267 picks · 502 bans
Mars
262 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 346 bans
Luna
245 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 488 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 21%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:49
OG 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1