ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 16 games
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
bzm · 10 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 10 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 279 bans
Mars
454 picks · 622 bans
Tiny
422 picks · 482 bans
Sand King
389 picks · 516 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 537 bans
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 512 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
OG 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:15.
Game 2prediction correct41:35
OG 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 52:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2